The first rung of the digital career ladder is disappearing, and the data now shows it.

UK entry-level vacancies are down 32% since ChatGPT launched. Graduate roles have fallen below 10,000 for the first time on record. In tech, the ISE reports graduate intake down 46% on 2024, with a further fall projected.

But here is the detail that should worry every workforce planner.

SFIA, the framework the industry uses to define digital careers, now publishes guidance on assigning work to AI. Its advice: start with Level 1 and 2 tasks, extend to Levels 3 and 4 as systems prove reliable.

Read that again. The career framework itself is documenting which rungs get absorbed first.

The problem is not this year’s graduate intake. It is that Level 4 practitioners are made at Levels 1 to 3. Nobody arrives at Enable without years spent at Follow, Assist and Apply. Remove the rungs today and the shortage arrives a career later.

This is the shadow lifecycle at organisational scale. The work still gets done, but the people who used to learn by doing it are no longer in the room.

We will be measuring this, not just arguing about it. Follow Cognitive Delivery Press for the research as it lands.